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Note: This page is currently in Beta. Everything looked okay at the start of the knockout round, but I haven't seen what will happen yet as results unfold and rounds are completed.
As always, I do not recommend betting with this information.
World Cup Knockout Stage simulation is based on team Elo ratings from eloratings.net.
Win probabilities are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 knockout stages and take live results into consideration.
Live data is sourced from ESPN.
Live and Recent Matchups
Argentina
Final 3–2 
Egypt
USA
Final 1–4 
Belgium
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Final 0–1 
Spain
Upcoming Matchups
Today 3:00 PM CT
Switzerland
vs 
Colombia
Probability Distribution Matrix (%)
|
Winner |
Runner-Up |
3rd |
4th |
QF |
Rd16 |
Rd32 |
| Spain |
31.16 |
16.60 |
21.30 |
8.84 |
22.10 |
— |
— |
| Argentina |
27.58 |
26.80 |
10.56 |
8.00 |
27.06 |
— |
— |
 France |
23.28 |
16.56 |
26.06 |
12.18 |
21.92 |
— |
— |
 England |
5.08 |
11.96 |
13.08 |
23.26 |
46.62 |
— |
— |
 Norway |
4.36 |
10.56 |
11.34 |
20.36 |
53.38 |
— |
— |
| Colombia |
3.52 |
6.08 |
3.16 |
5.28 |
40.78 |
41.18 |
— |
| Belgium |
2.70 |
4.50 |
6.42 |
8.48 |
77.90 |
— |
— |
 Morocco |
1.48 |
3.72 |
6.46 |
10.26 |
78.08 |
— |
— |
| Switzerland |
0.84 |
3.22 |
1.62 |
3.34 |
32.16 |
58.82 |
— |
 Paraguay |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
 Canada |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
 Brazil |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
 Mexico |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
| Portugal |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
| USA |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
| Egypt |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
 Germany |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Sweden |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 South Africa |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Netherlands |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Japan |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Ivory Coast |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Ecuador |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 DR Congo |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Croatia |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Austria |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Bosnia and Herzegovina |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Senegal |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Cape Verde |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Australia |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Algeria |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
 Ghana |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Visual Tournament Bracket Node Frequencies
Round of 32
MATCH 74
| Germany 1(3) | vs | (4)1 Paraguay | 100% |
MATCH 77
| France 3 | vs | 0 Sweden | 100% |
MATCH 73
| Canada 1 | vs | 0 South Africa | 100% |
MATCH 75
| Morocco 1(3) | vs | (2)1 Netherlands | 100% |
MATCH 83
| Croatia 1 | vs | 2 Portugal | 100% |
MATCH 84
| Austria 0 | vs | 3 Spain | 100% |
MATCH 81
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 | vs | 2 USA | 100% |
MATCH 82
| Belgium 3 | vs | 2 Senegal | 100% |
MATCH 76
| Brazil 2 | vs | 1 Japan | 100% |
MATCH 78
| Ivory Coast 1 | vs | 2 Norway | 100% |
MATCH 79
| Ecuador 0 | vs | 2 Mexico | 100% |
MATCH 80
| DR Congo 1 | vs | 2 England | 100% |
MATCH 86
| Argentina 3 | vs | 2 Cape Verde | 100% |
MATCH 88
| Australia 1(2) | vs | (4)1 Egypt | 100% |
MATCH 85
| Algeria 0 | vs | 2 Switzerland | 100% |
MATCH 87
| Colombia 1 | vs | 0 Ghana | 100% |
Round of 16
MATCH 89
| France 1 | vs | 0 Paraguay | 100% |
MATCH 90
| Canada 0 | vs | 3 Morocco | 100% |
MATCH 93
| Portugal 0 | vs | 1 Spain | 100% |
MATCH 94
| Belgium 4 | vs | 1 USA | 100% |
MATCH 91
| Brazil 1 | vs | 2 Norway | 100% |
MATCH 92
| England 3 | vs | 2 Mexico | 100% |
MATCH 95
| Argentina 3 | vs | 2 Egypt | 100% |
MATCH 96
| Colombia (59.4%) | vs | (40.6%) Switzerland | 100% |
Quarterfinals
MATCH 97
| France (78.2%) | vs | (21.8%) Morocco | 100% |
MATCH 98
| Belgium (22.4%) | vs | (77.6%) Spain | 100% |
MATCH 99
| England (51.9%) | vs | (48.1%) Norway | 100% |
MATCH 100
| Argentina | vs | Colombia | 58.8% |
| Argentina | vs | Switzerland | 41.2% |
Semifinals
SEMIFINAL 1
| France | vs | Spain | 60.9% |
| Belgium | vs | France | 17.2% |
| Morocco | vs | Spain | 17.0% |
| Belgium | vs | Morocco | 4.9% |
SEMIFINAL 2
| Argentina | vs | England | 39.0% |
| Argentina | vs | Norway | 34.0% |
| Colombia | vs | England | 9.8% |
| Colombia | vs | Norway | 8.3% |
| Other Matchups | 9.0% |
Finals
CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL
| Argentina | vs | Spain | 26.2% |
| Argentina | vs | France | 21.7% |
| England | vs | Spain | 8.1% |
| England | vs | France | 7.0% |
| Other Matchups | 36.9% |
THIRD PLACE PLAY-OFF
| England | vs | France | 14.3% |
| France | vs | Norway | 12.0% |
| England | vs | Spain | 10.2% |
| Norway | vs | Spain | 9.7% |
| Other Matchups | 53.7% |
Matchup Frequency Breakdown
MATCH 96
| Colombia (59.4%) |
vs |
(40.6%) Switzerland |
100% |
MATCH 97
| France (78.2%) |
vs |
(21.8%) Morocco |
100% |
MATCH 98
| Belgium (22.4%) |
vs |
(77.6%) Spain |
100% |
MATCH 99
| England (51.9%) |
vs |
(48.1%) Norway |
100% |
MATCH 100
| Argentina |
vs |
Colombia |
58.8% |
| Argentina |
vs |
Switzerland |
41.2% |
SEMIFINAL 1
| France |
vs |
Spain |
60.9% |
| Belgium |
vs |
France |
17.2% |
| Morocco |
vs |
Spain |
17.0% |
| Belgium |
vs |
Morocco |
4.9% |
SEMIFINAL 2
| Argentina |
vs |
England |
39.0% |
| Argentina |
vs |
Norway |
34.0% |
| Colombia |
vs |
England |
9.8% |
| Colombia |
vs |
Norway |
8.3% |
| England |
vs |
Switzerland |
4.6% |
| Norway |
vs |
Switzerland |
4.4% |
THIRD PLACE PLAY-OFF
| England |
vs |
France |
14.3% |
| France |
vs |
Norway |
12.0% |
| England |
vs |
Spain |
10.2% |
| Norway |
vs |
Spain |
9.7% |
| England |
vs |
Morocco |
7.0% |
| Argentina |
vs |
France |
6.8% |
| Argentina |
vs |
Spain |
6.4% |
| Morocco |
vs |
Norway |
5.0% |
| Belgium |
vs |
Norway |
4.9% |
| Belgium |
vs |
England |
4.9% |
| Colombia |
vs |
France |
3.1% |
| Argentina |
vs |
Belgium |
2.9% |
| Colombia |
vs |
Spain |
2.6% |
| Argentina |
vs |
Morocco |
2.5% |
| France |
vs |
Switzerland |
2.0% |
| Colombia |
vs |
Morocco |
1.4% |
| Belgium |
vs |
Colombia |
1.4% |
| Spain |
vs |
Switzerland |
1.2% |
| Morocco |
vs |
Switzerland |
0.9% |
| Belgium |
vs |
Switzerland |
0.8% |
CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL
| Argentina |
vs |
Spain |
26.2% |
| Argentina |
vs |
France |
21.7% |
| England |
vs |
Spain |
8.1% |
| England |
vs |
France |
7.0% |
| Norway |
vs |
Spain |
6.6% |
| France |
vs |
Norway |
6.4% |
| Colombia |
vs |
Spain |
4.6% |
| Argentina |
vs |
Belgium |
3.9% |
| Colombia |
vs |
France |
3.4% |
| Argentina |
vs |
Morocco |
2.6% |
| Spain |
vs |
Switzerland |
2.3% |
| France |
vs |
Switzerland |
1.2% |
| Belgium |
vs |
Norway |
1.0% |
| Belgium |
vs |
Colombia |
1.0% |
| Belgium |
vs |
England |
1.0% |
| Morocco |
vs |
Norway |
0.9% |
| England |
vs |
Morocco |
0.9% |
| Colombia |
vs |
Morocco |
0.6% |
| Belgium |
vs |
Switzerland |
0.3% |
| Morocco |
vs |
Switzerland |
0.2% |