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World Cup 2026 Bracket Hub

Knockout Stage Monte Carlo Simulations (N = 5,000)

Last Updated: 2026-07-27 22:26:53

Note: This page is currently in Beta. Everything looked okay at the start of the knockout round, but I haven't seen what will happen yet as results unfold and rounds are completed.
As always, I do not recommend betting with this information.

World Cup Knockout Stage simulation is based on team Elo ratings from eloratings.net.

Win probabilities are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 knockout stages and take live results into consideration.

Live data is sourced from ESPN.

Live and Recent Matchups

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Upcoming Matchups

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Probability Distribution Matrix (%)

Winner Runner-Up 3rd 4th QF Rd16 Rd32
Spain Spain 100.00 — — — — — —
Argentina Argentina — 100.00 — — — — —
England England — — 100.00 — — — —
France France — — — 100.00 — — —
Morocco Morocco — — — — 100.00 — —
Norway Norway — — — — 100.00 — —
Belgium Belgium — — — — 100.00 — —
Switzerland Switzerland — — — — 100.00 — —
Paraguay Paraguay — — — — — 100.00 —
Canada Canada — — — — — 100.00 —
Brazil Brazil — — — — — 100.00 —
Mexico Mexico — — — — — 100.00 —
Portugal Portugal — — — — — 100.00 —
USA USA — — — — — 100.00 —
Egypt Egypt — — — — — 100.00 —
Colombia Colombia — — — — — 100.00 —
Germany Germany — — — — — — 100.00
Sweden Sweden — — — — — — 100.00
South Africa South Africa — — — — — — 100.00
Netherlands Netherlands — — — — — — 100.00
Japan Japan — — — — — — 100.00
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast — — — — — — 100.00
Ecuador Ecuador — — — — — — 100.00
DR Congo DR Congo — — — — — — 100.00
Croatia Croatia — — — — — — 100.00
Austria Austria — — — — — — 100.00
Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina — — — — — — 100.00
Senegal Senegal — — — — — — 100.00
Cape Verde Cape Verde — — — — — — 100.00
Australia Australia — — — — — — 100.00
Algeria Algeria — — — — — — 100.00
Ghana Ghana — — — — — — 100.00

Visual Tournament Bracket Node Frequencies

Round of 32

MATCH 74

Germany Germany 1(3)vs(4)1 Paraguay Paraguay100%

MATCH 77

France France 3vs0 Sweden Sweden100%

MATCH 73

Canada Canada 1vs0 South Africa South Africa100%

MATCH 75

Morocco Morocco 1(3)vs(2)1 Netherlands Netherlands100%

MATCH 83

Croatia Croatia 1vs2 Portugal Portugal100%

MATCH 84

Austria Austria 0vs3 Spain Spain100%

MATCH 81

Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina 0vs2 USA USA100%

MATCH 82

Belgium Belgium 3vs2 Senegal Senegal100%

MATCH 76

Brazil Brazil 2vs1 Japan Japan100%

MATCH 78

Ivory Coast Ivory Coast 1vs2 Norway Norway100%

MATCH 79

Ecuador Ecuador 0vs2 Mexico Mexico100%

MATCH 80

DR Congo DR Congo 1vs2 England England100%

MATCH 86

Argentina Argentina 3vs2 Cape Verde Cape Verde100%

MATCH 88

Australia Australia 1(2)vs(4)1 Egypt Egypt100%

MATCH 85

Algeria Algeria 0vs2 Switzerland Switzerland100%

MATCH 87

Colombia Colombia 1vs0 Ghana Ghana100%

Round of 16

MATCH 89

France France 1vs0 Paraguay Paraguay100%

MATCH 90

Canada Canada 0vs3 Morocco Morocco100%

MATCH 93

Portugal Portugal 0vs1 Spain Spain100%

MATCH 94

Belgium Belgium 4vs1 USA USA100%

MATCH 91

Brazil Brazil 1vs2 Norway Norway100%

MATCH 92

England England 3vs2 Mexico Mexico100%

MATCH 95

Argentina Argentina 3vs2 Egypt Egypt100%

MATCH 96

Colombia Colombia 0(3)vs(4)0 Switzerland Switzerland100%

Quarterfinals

MATCH 97

France France 2vs0 Morocco Morocco100%

MATCH 98

Belgium Belgium 1vs2 Spain Spain100%

MATCH 99

England England 2vs1 Norway Norway100%

MATCH 100

Argentina Argentina 3vs1 Switzerland Switzerland100%

Semifinals

SEMIFINAL 1

France France 0vs2 Spain Spain100%

SEMIFINAL 2

Argentina Argentina 2vs1 England England100%

Finals

CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL

Argentina Argentina 0vs1 Spain Spain100%

THIRD PLACE PLAY-OFF

England England 6vs4 France France100%

Matchup Frequency Breakdown