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Note: This page is currently in Beta. Everything looked okay at the start of the knockout round, but I haven't seen what will happen yet as results unfold and rounds are completed.
As always, I do not recommend betting with this information.
World Cup Knockout Stage simulation is based on team Elo ratings from eloratings.net.
Win probabilities are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 knockout stages and take live results into consideration.
Live data is sourced from ESPN.
Live and Recent Matchups
No matches played today or yesterday.
Upcoming Matchups
No upcoming matches scheduled.
Probability Distribution Matrix (%)
|
Winner |
Runner-Up |
3rd |
4th |
QF |
Rd16 |
Rd32 |
Spain |
100.00 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Argentina |
— |
100.00 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
England |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
France |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
— |
— |
Morocco |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
— |
Norway |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
— |
Belgium |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
— |
Switzerland |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
— |
Paraguay |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
Canada |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
Brazil |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
Mexico |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
Portugal |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
USA |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
Egypt |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
Colombia |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
— |
Germany |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Sweden |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
South Africa |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Netherlands |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Japan |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Ivory Coast |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Ecuador |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
DR Congo |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Croatia |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Austria |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Senegal |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Cape Verde |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Australia |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Algeria |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Ghana |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
100.00 |
Visual Tournament Bracket Node Frequencies
Round of 32
MATCH 74
Germany 1(3) | vs | (4)1 Paraguay  | 100% |
MATCH 77
France 3 | vs | 0 Sweden  | 100% |
MATCH 73
Canada 1 | vs | 0 South Africa  | 100% |
MATCH 75
Morocco 1(3) | vs | (2)1 Netherlands  | 100% |
MATCH 83
Croatia 1 | vs | 2 Portugal  | 100% |
MATCH 84
Austria 0 | vs | 3 Spain  | 100% |
MATCH 81
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 | vs | 2 USA  | 100% |
MATCH 82
Belgium 3 | vs | 2 Senegal  | 100% |
MATCH 76
Brazil 2 | vs | 1 Japan  | 100% |
MATCH 78
Ivory Coast 1 | vs | 2 Norway  | 100% |
MATCH 79
Ecuador 0 | vs | 2 Mexico  | 100% |
MATCH 80
DR Congo 1 | vs | 2 England  | 100% |
MATCH 86
Argentina 3 | vs | 2 Cape Verde  | 100% |
MATCH 88
Australia 1(2) | vs | (4)1 Egypt  | 100% |
MATCH 85
Algeria 0 | vs | 2 Switzerland  | 100% |
MATCH 87
Colombia 1 | vs | 0 Ghana  | 100% |
Round of 16
MATCH 89
France 1 | vs | 0 Paraguay  | 100% |
MATCH 90
Canada 0 | vs | 3 Morocco  | 100% |
MATCH 93
Portugal 0 | vs | 1 Spain  | 100% |
MATCH 94
Belgium 4 | vs | 1 USA  | 100% |
MATCH 91
Brazil 1 | vs | 2 Norway  | 100% |
MATCH 92
England 3 | vs | 2 Mexico  | 100% |
MATCH 95
Argentina 3 | vs | 2 Egypt  | 100% |
MATCH 96
Colombia 0(3) | vs | (4)0 Switzerland  | 100% |
Quarterfinals
MATCH 97
France 2 | vs | 0 Morocco  | 100% |
MATCH 98
Belgium 1 | vs | 2 Spain  | 100% |
MATCH 99
England 2 | vs | 1 Norway  | 100% |
MATCH 100
Argentina 3 | vs | 1 Switzerland  | 100% |
Semifinals
SEMIFINAL 1
France 0 | vs | 2 Spain  | 100% |
SEMIFINAL 2
Argentina 2 | vs | 1 England  | 100% |
Finals
CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL
Argentina 0 | vs | 1 Spain  | 100% |
THIRD PLACE PLAY-OFF
England 6 | vs | 4 France  | 100% |
Matchup Frequency Breakdown